Coal stocks mostly rebounded. As of press release, South Gobi (01878) rose 6.79% to HK$4.09; Mongolian coking coal (00975) rose 5.03% to HK$8.14; and Yankuang Energy (01171) rose 3.43% to HK$18.1.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that coal stocks have mostly rebounded. As of press release, South Gobi (01878) rose 6.79% to HK$4.09; Mongolian coking coal (00975) rose 5.03% to HK$8.14; Yankuang Energy (01171) rose 3.43% to HK$18.1; Yancoal Australia (03668) rose 3.24% to HK$28.65; China Shenhua (01088) rose 2.54% to HK$30.25.
According to the news, on March 18, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the energy production situation for January-February 2024 and the production volume of industrial products above scale. Data show that from January to February 2024, China produced 710 million tons of raw coal, down 4.2% year on year; imported 74.52 million tons of coal, up 22.9% year on year. The cumulative coal supply was 780 million tons, down 1.9% year on year. Minsheng Securities believes that the decline in raw coal production in the first two months confirms the impact of safety supervision on production. In the later stages, along with the continuous strengthening of the safety supervision situation, it is expected that the growth rate of coal production may change from a slight increase to negative growth throughout the year.
Capital Securities pointed out that there is currently limited room for coal prices to fall. The core reason is that supply is affected by safety inspections, expectations of production capacity contraction in major production areas, declining coal prices and narrowing imports, etc., weakening the current decline in demand. Furthermore, there is a lack of production capacity in the medium to long term and the depletion of some mine resources and supply flexibility is still lacking. Demand is expected to continue to reach new highs during the peak season, and coal prices of 5,500 kcal in the northern port are still expected to quickly rebound to more than 900 yuan/ton after the off-season ends.