The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Clover Health Investments, Corp. (NASDAQ:CLOV), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
After the downgrade, the consensus from Clover Health Investments' three analysts is for revenues of US$1.3b in 2024, which would reflect a stressful 37% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 46% to US$0.23. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.5b and US$0.17 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 37% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 42% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Clover Health Investments is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Clover Health Investments' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the serious cut to this year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on Clover Health Investments, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Clover Health Investments analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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