The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference set the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry, and the March 2023 government work reports proposed building new growth engines such as the low-altitude economy. The central level continues to pay attention to the development of the low-altitude economy, and the low-altitude airspace reform has become an important boost. Under the joint impetus of the policy side and the industry side, the low-altitude economy trillion-dollar market will be implemented at an accelerated pace. 24 may be the first year of the industry. Currently, industries related to the low-altitude economy are in the early stages of development. It is recommended that priority be given to pioneering, highly deterministic infrastructure construction, and aircraft manufacturing processes that determine industry trends and have a large long-term space.

Infrastructure: Infrastructure construction comes first. The air traffic control system is the core of low-altitude airspace management, and related supporting enterprises are expected to benefit greatly. It is recommended to focus on Sichuan Jiuzhou (000801.SZ), Rice Information (688631.SH), and Shenzhen Transit (301091.SZ); aircraft manufacturing: eVTOL is an important carrier of the low-altitude economy, and the commercialization of products with gradually mature technology can be expected. It is recommended to focus on Ehang Intelligence (EH.US) and Wanfeng Aowei (002085.SZ).

Low-altitude economy trillion-dollar market size policy and industry-side dual catalytic resonance

In December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference defined the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry. The government work reports of the March 2023 two sessions proposed building new growth engines such as the low-altitude economy. The central level continues to pay attention to the development of the low-altitude economy, and low-altitude airspace reform has become an important boost. Local governments have responded to the call according to local conditions, and several provinces have introduced policies and plans related to low-altitude economic development. Low-altitude economic development in places such as Shenzhen, Hunan, and Sichuan is at the forefront of the country. The maturity of the new industrial aircraft eVTOL product has improved. The Eaviation EH216-S successfully obtained evidence and reached cooperation with local governments such as Wuxi and Guangzhou. Shanghai Fengfei's “Shengshilong” completed the Shenzhen-Zhuhai cross-sea cross-city flight, and application scenarios are gradually being implemented. Under the joint impetus of the policy side and the industry side, the low-altitude economy trillion-dollar market will be implemented at an accelerated pace. 24 may be the first year of the industry.

The core area of the first infrastructure construction of the air traffic control system exceeds 40 billion yuan

Low-altitude infrastructure construction is an important part of the low-altitude economy. It mainly includes the construction of aircraft take-off and landing sites and supporting air traffic control facilities. As an important component, the air traffic control system consists of an air traffic management system (ATM) and peripheral facility communication, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) equipment, and plays a central role in low-altitude airspace management. Reviewing the development of the US general aviation industry, perfect infrastructure construction is an important condition for the development of the aviation industry. China's low-altitude economic infrastructure related fields represented by air traffic control systems are expected to benefit first, and the market size is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan by 2030.

eVTOL is an important carrier for the low-altitude economy, and the new aircraft scene expands rapidly and the space is vast

As a new type of low-altitude aircraft, eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft) has multiple advantages such as safety, quietness, environmental protection, economy, intelligence, and comfort, and is one of the important carriers of the low-altitude economy. The “Green Aviation Manufacturing Development Outline (2023-2035)” proposes to achieve pilot operation of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft in 2025, and commercialization and large-scale application of new general aviation equipment characterized by unmanned, electrified, and intelligent technology. According to Porsche Management Consulting's forecast, China's eVTOL market will reach 50 billion yuan in 2030 under a neutral assumption. Product development and forensics cycles are expected to be shortened as technological maturity increases, various products are expected to usher in forensics, commercial operation is about to be implemented, and application scenarios will gradually expand to open up market space.

Drones are an industry dominated by the low-altitude economy. Industrial-grade drones are expected to develop rapidly

The development of China's drone industry began with military drones and gradually moved into the civilian field after entering the 20th century. As 5G technology, big data, cloud computing, and IoT technologies mature, drones will become a powerful tool for the low-altitude economy to expand new scenarios and new business formats, and the industry will usher in rapid development. Industrial-grade drones account for 61% of the civilian drone market. Downstream applications cover many scenarios such as agriculture, forestry and plant protection, remote sensing and mapping, inspection, and express logistics. According to the Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, the market size is expected to reach 170 billion yuan in 2027.

Risk warning

The implementation progress and strength of policies related to the low-altitude economy fell short of expectations, the progress of eVTOL R&D and certification fell short of expectations, and the supporting progress of infrastructure construction fell short of expectations.