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What Hanesbrands Inc.'s (NYSE:HBI) 33% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 17 09:56

Hanesbrands Inc. (NYSE:HBI) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 33% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 12% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Hanesbrands' P/S ratio of 0.4x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Luxury industry in the United States is also close to 0.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:HBI Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 17th 2024

What Does Hanesbrands' Recent Performance Look Like?

Hanesbrands hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this poor revenue performance will turn around. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Hanesbrands will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Hanesbrands?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Hanesbrands' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 9.6%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 8.0% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 1.8% per annum as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 7.8% growth per year, that's a disappointing outcome.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Hanesbrands' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Hanesbrands' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

It appears that Hanesbrands currently trades on a higher than expected P/S for a company whose revenues are forecast to decline. When we see a gloomy outlook like this, our immediate thoughts are that the share price is at risk of declining, negatively impacting P/S. If we consider the revenue outlook, the P/S seems to indicate that potential investors may be paying a premium for the stock.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Hanesbrands you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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