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China Minsheng Banking (SHSE:600016) Shareholders Have Endured a 18% Loss From Investing in the Stock Five Years Ago

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 16 21:27

For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. (SHSE:600016) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 38% over a half decade.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the five years over which the share price declined, China Minsheng Banking's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 9.7% each year. Notably, the share price has fallen at 9% per year, fairly close to the change in the EPS. This suggests that market participants have not changed their view of the company all that much. So it's fair to say the share price has been responding to changes in EPS.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:600016 Earnings Per Share Growth March 17th 2024

This free interactive report on China Minsheng Banking's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of China Minsheng Banking, it has a TSR of -18% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that China Minsheng Banking shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 24% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 3% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Minsheng Banking better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Minsheng Banking you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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