China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (HKG:1866) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 3.8% in the last twelve months.
Even after such a large jump in price, given about half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 9x, you may still consider China XLX Fertiliser as a highly attractive investment with its 4.1x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for China XLX Fertiliser as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like China XLX Fertiliser's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 12%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 187% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 22% during the coming year according to the only analyst following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 22% growth , the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.
With this information, we find it odd that China XLX Fertiliser is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Bottom Line On China XLX Fertiliser's P/E
Even after such a strong price move, China XLX Fertiliser's P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that China XLX Fertiliser currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is in line with the wider market. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the outlook. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - China XLX Fertiliser has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.