It is hard to get excited after looking at AIA Group's (HKG:1299) recent performance, when its stock has declined 10% over the past three months. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Specifically, we decided to study AIA Group's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AIA Group is:

9.1% = US$3.8b ÷ US$42b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every HK$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated HK$0.09 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

AIA Group's Earnings Growth And 9.1% ROE

At first glance, AIA Group's ROE doesn't look very promising. Although a closer study shows that the company's ROE is higher than the industry average of 4.1% which we definitely can't overlook. But seeing AIA Group's five year net income decline of 11% over the past five years, we might rethink that. Bear in mind, the company does have a slightly low ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is lower. Therefore, the decline in earnings could also be the result of this.

As a next step, we compared AIA Group's performance with the industry and found thatAIA Group's performance is depressing even when compared with the industry, which has shrunk its earnings at a rate of 1.3% in the same period, which is a slower than the company.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is 1299 fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is AIA Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 38% (that is, a retention ratio of 62%), the fact that AIA Group's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Moreover, AIA Group has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 36%. However, AIA Group's ROE is predicted to rise to 14% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Summary

In total, it does look like AIA Group has some positive aspects to its business. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.