Shareholders might have noticed that Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to US$164 in the past week. Target reported US$107b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.94 beat expectations, being 7.2% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, Target's 32 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$107.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.0% to US$9.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$107.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.27 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$183, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Target at US$206 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$132. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Target shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Target's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$183, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Target. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Target analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Target is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.