1. On March 15 (Friday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.20%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.23%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.18%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.52%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.22%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.55%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.56%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.46% to $80.89 per barrel. Brent crude fell 0.42% to $85.06 per barrel.

Market news

On Friday, US stocks ushered in the first “Three Witches Day” of the year. That is, the three contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options expire and settle on the same day. This time, options linked to more than $5 trillion of individual stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and stock indexes will expire today. According to Goldman Sachs data, individual stock options trading volume in March is expected to surpass cash stock trading volume for the first time since the end of 2021, which exacerbates the possibility of significant market fluctuations.

Barclays: If Trump wins the US election again, the dollar is expected to rise 3%. Barclays Bank's foreign exchange strategist said that if former US President Donald Trump wins re-election in November, the dollar is expected to rise 3% based on his policy proposals to raise tariffs, stimulate the economy, and weaken promises to NATO (NATO). Barclays strategists, including Themistoklis Fiotakis, wrote in a report to clients on Thursday: “Trump's array of trump proposals in trade, finance, and foreign policy amounts to a structural break with the past and could have a profound impact on the foreign exchange market and the US dollar.” According to Barclays analysis, Trump's trade and other proposals could reinforce the “latest incarnation of American exceptionalism” that has supported the dollar in recent years.

Three weeks of continuous promotion! The direction of the Federal Reserve is confusing, and US money market funds have become even more “fragrant.” Recently, as traders settled their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time this year, it is expected that short-term interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, and US money market fund assets have risen to a record high. According to data from the Association of American Investment Companies, in the week ending March 13, about 31.3 billion US dollars flowed into US money market funds, and total assets increased from 6.077 trillion US dollars the previous week to 6.108 trillion US dollars. Federal Reserve officials have spent most of the past six weeks fighting back against market expectations that interest rates will be cut at next week's policy meeting. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said during a congressional hearing that the Fed's confidence was close to the level needed to cut interest rates. However, market expectations for the Fed's easing policy have recently weakened due to hot inflation data, and swaps that predict changes in interest rates are priced at slightly less than 75 basis points to cut interest rates before the end of the year.

Biden's suspension of approval for new LNG export projects has jeopardized US market share. The Biden administration's suspension of issuing new licenses to liquefied natural gas exporters has impeded progress on some projects that were originally planned to be put into operation by 2030. According to people familiar with the matter, several LNG buyers have delayed signing new long-term contracts with US producers until things are more clear. These buyers include Malaysia's state-owned oil and gas company Petroliam Nasional Bhd. People familiar with the matter revealed that the company is in negotiations with Cheniere Energy Inc. and others, but is unwilling to commit until the license is approved. People familiar with the matter said that Japan's Jera Co. and at least two Chinese companies are also reviewing US projects more closely before moving forward with negotiations. The US was the world's largest exporter of natural gas power plants and heating fuel last year.

The US PPI data for February unexpectedly exceeded expectations, and Bitcoin fell below 70,000 US dollars after reaching five new highs in seven days. Bitcoin fell below $70,000 after hitting a new high for the fifth time in seven days as investors pulled out of high-risk assets in financial markets. Bitcoin once fell 6.3% to $68,549 on Thursday, having previously risen to a record high of $73,797. At the same time, a hot PPI data strengthened the market's bet that the Federal Reserve would not hurry to cut interest rates. US bond yields rose, and US stocks fell. According to the data, the US PPI rose 1.6% year on year in February, clearly exceeding market expectations of 1.1% and the previous value of 0.9%; the month-on-month increase was 0.6%, which was also higher than market expectations of 0.3%. Looking at items, the rise in fuel and food prices was the main driver driving the US PPI higher than expected in February, reflecting the stickiness of US inflation.

Wages and inflation “dance hand in hand”! The Bank of Japan has opened the door to raising interest rates; it is only official announcement until the end of negative interest rates. Since Japanese companies' salary increases in 2024 will exceed last year's, and inflation continues to exceed the targets set by the central bank, the market currently anticipates that the Bank of Japan may choose to raise interest rates as early as next week's policy meeting. At the financial policy decision meeting to be held from March 18 to 19, the Bank of Japan will discuss whether to lift the negative interest rate policy. If the negative interest rate policy is lifted, it will be the first time in 17 years since February 2007 that the central bank raised interest rates. According to a survey of economists, more and more analysts expect the Bank of Japan to abandon its negative interest rate policy this month, while only a few analysts held this view during the February survey. Meanwhile, Japan's Jiji Press broke the news on the evening of March 14 that the Bank of Japan plans to end its negative interest rate policy at the March meeting.

Individual stock news

Fog Core Technology (RLX.US)'s net revenue for the fourth quarter increased 53% year over year. Wuxin Technology's Q4 net revenue was $520.5 million, up 53% year on year; net profit was 216 million yuan, net loss for the same period last year was 225.1 million yuan; diluted ADS earnings per share were 0.166 yuan, and ADS loss per share for the same period last year was 0.174 yuan. Foxin Technology's Q4 net revenue was $520.5 million, mainly due to its international expansion in Southeast Asia and North Asia. The gross margin for Q4 was 23.7%, compared to 43.6% for the same period last year. The main reason for the decline was the imposition of a 36% consumption tax from November 1, 2022, and adverse changes in the revenue structure.

Net revenue for the fourth quarter of China Energy (CBAT.US) increased 3.2% year over year. Zhongbi Energy's Q4 net revenue was US$56.2 million, up 3.2% year on year. Net loss attributable to the company's shareholders was US$4.8 million, with a loss of US$10.7 million in the same period last year. Net revenue for the year was US$204.4 million, down 17.8% year on year. Net loss attributable to the company's shareholders was US$2.5 million, and loss of US$9.5 million in the same period last year.

AI “invades” the field of creative software! Adobe's (ADBE.US) Q2 revenue guidance falls short of expectations. Adobe's Q1 revenue was US$5.18 billion, up 11% year over year, better than market expectations of US$5.14 billion; adjusted earnings per share were US$4.48, better than market expectations of US$4.38. In the first fiscal quarter, revenue from the digital media division, which includes flagship creative and document processing software, increased 12% to $3.82 billion; revenue from the division, which includes marketing and analytical software, increased 10% to $1.29 billion. Adobe published weak revenue guidance, raising concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) startups pose a competitive threat. Adobe expects revenue for the second fiscal quarter to be between $5.25 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of up to $4.40. In comparison, the market expects revenue of $5.31 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.38.

A new example of “AI+ energy” application! Using AI for US crude oil drilling: supply rises, oil prices fall? The application of artificial intelligence (AI) has penetrated the oil extraction industry. Nabors Industries (NBR.US) recently used an AI program to take over a long distance drilling platform. Rafael Guedes, the company's head of performance tools, observes the AI robot controls the oilfield drilling platform through a screen, sends instructions from a satellite, and makes instantaneous decisions to make it as smooth as possible to drill through the rock. Guedes estimates that the program will save around 5,000 instructions during drilling and increase the speed by at least 30%.

It is rumored that Samsung (SSNLF.US) will receive more than 6 billion US dollars in chip subsidies to expand investment in the US. According to people familiar with the matter, the US plans to provide Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) with more than 6 billion US dollars to help the chipmaker expand its business beyond the already announced Texas project. People familiar with the matter said that this funding comes from the 2022 Chip and Science Act, which will be one of several major rewards announced by the US Department of Commerce in the coming weeks, including providing more than 5 billion US dollars in funding to TSM.US. People familiar with the matter said that Samsung will make a big additional investment in the US. In 2021, the company announced a $17 billion project in Tyler, Texas, close to the existing Samsung factory in Austin. It's unclear where this additional investment will go.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:30 Beijing time: The monthly rate of the US import price index for February (%).

At 21:15 Beijing time, the monthly rate of US industrial output in February (%).

22:00 Beijing time: The initial value of the US Consumer Confidence Index for March at the University of Michigan.

The next day at 01:00 a.m. Beijing time: The total number of US drills (ports) for the week ending March 15.