According to a research report released on March 14, UBS pointed out that:
Despite Q423 NPAT missing expectations, the FY24 outlook of Futu is strong, with NPAT YoY decline mainly due to higher-than-expected interest expenses and Opex.
FUTU is confident in international expansion with FY24 client acquisition guidance of 350k (vs. 150k in FY23). The company is disciplined in client acquisition, with 15%/14% YoY decline in client acquisition cost (CAC) in Q4/FY23.
The new buyback program of US$500mn demonstrates Futu's commitment to shareholder returns.
Despite the recent stock price rally and the miss on NPAT, investors may remain cautious in the short term, despite the robust growth in client AUM and strong FY24 guidance. Key focuses include:
(1) International expansion progress, particularly product pipelines in Japan and Malaysia;
(2) Q124-to-date business update;
(3) FY24 guidance on other operating metrics, such as Opex and CAC.