The Progressive Path Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1581) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 27%. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 32% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Progressive Path Group Holdings' P/S ratio of 0.1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Trade Distributors industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

How Progressive Path Group Holdings Has Been Performing

Revenue has risen firmly for Progressive Path Group Holdings recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this respectable revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on Progressive Path Group Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Progressive Path Group Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 12% gain to the company's revenues. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 43% overall rise in revenue, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 27% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Progressive Path Group Holdings' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

Progressive Path Group Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Progressive Path Group Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Progressive Path Group Holdings, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.