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Benign Growth For Bakkt Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BKKT) Underpins Stock's 41% Plummet

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 14 09:08

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Bakkt Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BKKT) shares are down a considerable 41% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 48% share price drop.

Following the heavy fall in price, Bakkt Holdings may look like a strong buying opportunity at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x, considering almost half of all companies in the Capital Markets industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 3.5x and even P/S higher than 8x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:BKKT Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 14th 2024

What Does Bakkt Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Bakkt Holdings has been doing relatively well. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the share price, and thus the P/S ratio. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Bakkt Holdings.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Bakkt Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an explosive gain to the company's top line. The latest three year period has also seen an incredible overall rise in revenue, aided by its incredible short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 87% over the next year. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 11%, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we are not surprised that Bakkt Holdings is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. However, shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Bottom Line On Bakkt Holdings' P/S

Bakkt Holdings' P/S looks about as weak as its stock price lately. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Bakkt Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue is contributing to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless there's material change, it's hard to envision a situation where the stock price will rise drastically.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Bakkt Holdings (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that we have uncovered.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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