The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that after 2021, the amount of investment in the controllable nuclear fusion industry increased rapidly, and private investment already dominated. According to the FIA and UKAEA, fusion companies received total investment amounts of US$1.87 billion, US$4.8 billion, and US$6.2 billion respectively in 2021-2023. The fusion industry chain equipment mainly focuses on tokamak. Upstream components include magnets, cladding modules, and deflectors. The bank believes that technological breakthroughs in controlled nuclear fusion have continued in recent years, that the industrial chain has entered a period of rapid development, and that future development prospects are broad. The manufacturing barriers for tokamak parts are high, and companies that have manufacturing capabilities for tokamak parts at this stage and have received orders are expected to have a strong competitive advantage in the future.
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Cinda Securities's views are as follows:
Controlled nuclear fusion is the ultimate clean energy source for humans, and the development prospects are broad.
Nuclear fusion is the process of combining several lighter nuclei into a heavier nucleus to convert mass into energy. It is generally a reaction of deuterium and tritium. Deuterium, the raw material for nuclear fusion, is extremely abundant in seawater, and resource constraints will be greatly mitigated; fusion is safe and reliable, and the strict conditions for its occurrence make it difficult for safety accidents to occur; there is no pollution from fusion, and helium, a product of deuterium-tritium fusion, is not radioactive. We believe that controllable and self-sustaining will be the research and development direction of controlled fusion technology. The difficulty of being controllable is the long-term restraint and net energy gain of plasma; the difficulty of self-sustainment is the proliferation of tritium materials.
The nuclear fusion technology route is mainly tokamak, and various other technologies are in the process of continuous exploration.
The technical route of nuclear fusion mainly includes two types: magnetic restraint and inertial restraint. Inertial restraint uses the inertia of the shell to compress thermonuclear fuel to achieve high temperature and high density conditions through internal explosion. The US NIF is a representative device; magnetic restraint uses a magnetic field to limit ultra-high temperature plasma, mainly tokamaks, as well as devices such as simulators, magnetic mirrors, spherical rings, compact rings, ring convolution, and field reversal. In addition to typical pure fusion devices, fusion fission hybrid reactors also have potential for development. Furthermore, recent breakthroughs in AI technology are expected to help maintain plasma in tokamak devices, and controlled nuclear fusion technology continues to advance.
International controlled nuclear fusion is advancing at an accelerated pace, and the development of controlled fusion in China has entered a new era.
ITER is the world's largest fusion device. As of June 2021, the estimated cost of the ITER project is US$22 billion, of which magnetic systems account for the highest proportion, reaching 28%. The goal of this project is to solve various engineering problems before the industrialization of controlled nuclear fusion investment. The project is a global division of labor manufacturing model. China is responsible for 9.1% of equipment manufacturing, and the estimated development and processing costs will reach 4 billion yuan. The US NIF device has achieved net energy gain in recent years; Europe has built the European Joint Ring (JET), and its tritium-tritium fusion test produced plasma in 2023; Japan's JT-60SA device successfully produced plasma for the first time on October 23, 2023; China has clear goals and time plans for controlled nuclear fusion development. China has participated in the ITER project, operated the EAST project, Circulator 1 and 2, and developed CFETR to prepare the BEST project. In addition, many private investment companies such as Energy Singularity and Star Ring Energy have also entered controlled nuclear fusion.
The amount of investment in the industrial chain has increased markedly in recent years, and the industrial chain has entered a period of rapid development.
Since 2021, the amount of investment in the controlled nuclear fusion industry has increased rapidly, and private investment has taken the lead. According to the FIA and UKAEA, fusion companies received total investment amounts of US$1.87 billion, US$4.8 billion, and US$6.2 billion respectively in 2021-2023. Fusion industry chain equipment mainly focuses on tokamak. Upstream components include magnets, cladding modules, and polarizers.
Risk factors: Risk of slowing industrial investment, risk of developing controlled nuclear fusion technology falling short of expectations, risk of delivery falling short of expectations.