To the annoyance of some shareholders, Escalade, Incorporated (NASDAQ:ESCA) shares are down a considerable 27% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. Longer-term shareholders would now have taken a real hit with the stock declining 2.3% in the last year.
Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Escalade's P/E ratio of 17.9x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in the United States is also close to 17x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Escalade has been very sluggish. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will eventually fall in line with most others in the market. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
Escalade's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 53% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 57% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 65% during the coming year according to the lone analyst following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 12% growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that Escalade's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It may be that most investors aren't convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.
The Final Word
With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for Escalade looks quite average now. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Escalade's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Escalade you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Escalade. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.