Jinwu Financial News | CITIC Construction Investment Research Report said that Transcard (09923) will soon release its 2023 financial report. In view of changes in non-recurring revenue in the payment industry and increased competition in the in-store business, the bank has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts accordingly. The bank expects the GPV of the payment business to increase by 28.5% year on year to 2.87 trillion yuan, and the number of active service merchants will increase 13.6% year over year to 9.2 million, mainly benefiting from the recovery of offline consumption and expansion of payment distribution channels. Despite short-term pressure on payment business rates and a slight year-on-year decline, app-based and traditional payment rates in 2023 are expected to be 13.0 and 9.0 basis points, respectively, after excluding the impact of non-recurring revenue adjustments.
At the same time, the company's in-store e-commerce business has also experienced fierce competition and transformation. In 2023, in-store e-commerce service revenue will drop 71.8% to 100 million yuan year on year, while GMV will increase 21.2% year on year to reach 4 billion yuan, with a take rate of about 2.5%. On the one hand, Douyin's local lifestyle service provider competition intensified, and the overall take rate was lowered. On the other hand, the partner model actively launched by the company has also diluted the rate. Considering the continuous progress of cost reduction and efficiency efforts, the on-site e-commerce service is expected to gradually reduce losses and achieve trouble A loss becomes a profit.
According to the bank, in 2023, due to the adjustment of non-recurring revenue in the payment industry and the impact of increased competition in the in-store business, the company's revenue and profit forecast was adjusted to: 2023-2025 operating income of 3,931 billion yuan, 5.449 billion yuan, and 6.365 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +15.0%, +38.6%, and +16.8%, respectively; net profit from 2023 to 2025 is expected to be 11 million yuan, 206 million yuan, and 293 million yuan. As of 2024/3/11, the corresponding PE for 2024-2025 is about 23.7x, 16.6x, maintaining a “buy” rating.