1. Before the US stock market on March 12 (Tuesday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.02%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.26%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.44%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.32%, the British FTSE 100 index rose 1.16%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.03%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.08%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.09% to $77.86 per barrel. Brent crude rose 0.01% to $82.22 per barrel.

Market news

Interest rate cuts aren't far off? The US CPI hit hard tonight, setting the tone for next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week, investors will focus on key inflation indicators released at 8:30 tonight. The market generally expects the US CPI to remain stubbornly high at 3.1% in February. Federal Reserve officials were shocked by the unexpected rise in inflation data in January. Another unexpected rise in inflation in February may change the views of Fed officials on the 2024 interest rate path. After eight months of raising interest rates to a 20-year high, the Federal Reserve is moving towards the goal of reducing inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stressed during his testimony in Congress last week that before reducing borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve needs “a little more evidence” to prove that inflation is moving towards the 2% target. However, he said that the Federal Reserve is not far from being confident in cutting interest rates.

CPI is “scarier” than the Federal Reserve meeting! Citibank: US stocks will fluctuate sharply tonight. Citigroup analysts said the options market is more concerned about the potentially significant impact of Tuesday's inflation report on the S&P 500 index, rather than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. According to options data, the S&P 500 index's potential fluctuation level reached 0.9% on Tuesday, the largest level of implied fluctuation since April 2023 before the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and higher than the implied fluctuation for next Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The S&P 500 index's potential fluctuation on Tuesday was 0.9%, influenced by a strategy known as affordable cross-option trading, where traders buy the same amount of call and put options at the same execution price and expiration date.

Join the ranks of the bullies! Bank of America is bullish on the S&P 500 EPS to $250 this year. Bank of America strategists released a report saying that the profit of the S&P 500 index in 2024 will be stronger than expected, driven by strong economic growth and breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. A team of Bank of America strategists, including Ohsung Kwon and Savita Subramanian, raised their earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 index from $235 to $250, making them the most optimistic forecasters on Wall Street along with BMO Capital Markets and Deutsche Bank. Additionally, Bank of America expects earnings per share to reach $275 in 2025. The strategists wrote in a report that after a strong earnings season and an increase in Bank of America economists' expectations for the US GDP, earnings prospects have strengthened this year.

CEO Komo: The US recession is “not over yet” and the Federal Reserve should not rush to cut interest rates. J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he would not “rule out” the possibility of a recession in the US economy, but the Federal Reserve should wait a little longer before cutting interest rates. “The world is pricing a soft landing, probably 70-80%,” Dimon said at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney on Tuesday. “I think the probability of a soft landing for the economy in the next year or two is only half that number. The worst case scenario would be stagflation.” Dimon said that the COVID-19 pandemic has distorted economic indicators, and he is “half-convinced and half-skeptical” about these indicators. He said that the Federal Reserve should wait until the situation is more clear before cutting interest rates. “They can always cut jobs quickly and dramatically. Their credibility is a bit at stake here,” he added. “Currently, the unemployment rate in the US is very low, and wages continue to rise.”

There are no signs of a bubble! Bank of America is steadfastly bullish on US stocks: there is support in this round of the bull market. Wall Street concerns believe that the US stock market is rising too high and too fast, and is approaching the bubble zone. However, Bank of America released a report saying that there is little evidence to support these pessimistic statements. Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian said that although the gains that began last year in the US stock market have been strong, they do not reflect the situations that occurred during previous boom and bust cycles, such as the huge gap between stock prices and their value, or the heavy use of leverage. The S&P 500 index declined slightly on Monday, continuing last week's decline. Traders are wary of key inflation data released on Tuesday. The market will pay attention to whether consumer price pressure remains stubborn, which may push the time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates beyond 2024.

“Bitcoin faith” rekindled! Wall Street continues to be bullish: the current rally is just a starting point. Bitcoin surged above $72,000 on Monday to a record high, but this is still far from the peak expected by some Bitcoin investors. Standard Chartered Bank expects Bitcoin to reach 100,000 US dollars by the end of this year; the target range set by research firm Fundstrat is 116,000 to 137,000 US dollars; according to the hedge fund SkyBridge forecast, Bitcoin will reach 170,000 US dollars by April 2025. Anthony Scaramucci (Anthony Scaramucci), founder and CEO of SkyBridge Capital, told foreign media: “People think we're crazy, but I don't think so. This is just to explain why we have such large positions.” Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, predicts that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $170,000 by April 2025.

Individual stock news

Oracle's (ORCL.US) Q3 profit exceeded expectations, and cloud computing revenue increased 25% year over year. Oracle's Q3 revenue was US$13.3 billion, up 7.1% year over year, in line with market expectations; earnings per share excluding some projects were US$1.41, better than market expectations of US$1.38. In the third fiscal quarter, high-profile cloud computing revenue increased 25% year over year to reach US$5.1 billion, slightly higher than market expectations of US$5.06 billion. Of this, $1.8 billion comes from computing power and storage space leases, and $3.3 billion comes from apps. The surge in cloud computing business bookings shows that Oracle is making progress in competing for market share. At the end of the third fiscal quarter in February, remaining performance obligations (a measure of Oracle's sales backlog) were $80 billion. This far surpassed analysts' estimates of $59 billion.

CANG.US revenue for the fourth quarter was 130 million yuan, down about 70% year on year. Auto trading service platform SunGu announced financial results for the fourth quarter after the market on March 11 EST. According to the data, Q4 revenue was 130 million yuan (about US$18.34 million), compared to 487 million yuan for the same period in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of about 70%. Non-GAAP adjusted net loss was RMB 99.185,500 (approximately US$13.97 million), compared with a net loss of RMB 540 million for the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) was RMB 0.91 (approximately USD 0.13), compared to RMB 3.99 for the same period last year. Looking at the full year, the total revenue for the full year of 2023 was RMB 1,702 million (approximately US$240 million), compared to RMB 1,980 billion for the full year of 2022. Non-GAAP adjusted net profit was 617,200 yuan (approximately US$86,900), compared with a net loss of 953 million yuan for the same period last year.

YALA.US (YALA.US) Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, and monthly active users increased 13.3% year over year. Yale Technology's Q4 revenue was US$80.9 million, up 7.7% year-on-year, and US$790,000 higher than market expectations. Net profit was $29.7 million, up 79% year over year. Net profit margin was 36.6%. In the fourth quarter, non-GAAP net profit was US$33.4 million, up 53.8% year over year. Non-GAAP net profit margin was 41.3%. Basic and diluted earnings per share were $0.20 and $0.17, respectively, compared to $0.11 and $0.09, respectively, for the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, the average number of monthly active users of Yale Technology was 36.2 million, 32 million in the same period last year, up 13.3% year on year; the number of paying users was 11.9 million, compared to 12.5 million in the same period last year, down 4.2% year on year. Looking ahead, Yale Technology expects revenue for the first quarter of 2024 to be between $72 million and $79 million.

Overseas revenue of Mingchuang Premium (MNSO.US) surged 50% to 1.49 billion yuan in the fourth quarter. Mingchuang Premium Group announced financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023. This quarter, Mingchuang Premium Group achieved continuous growth and innovation leadership, and achieved historic breakthroughs in many operating indicators such as global revenue, net profit, and gross margin. According to financial reports, the company's total revenue for the fourth quarter reached 3.84 billion yuan, an increase of 54% over the previous year, setting a record high in revenue for a single quarter. By improving refined management and operational efficiency, Mingchuang Premium's gross margin reached a record high of 43.1% this quarter, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the previous year. In terms of profitability, with the upgrading of the Mingchuang Premium brand strategy and high growth in overseas business, adjusted net profit for the fourth quarter surpassed 660 million yuan (non-IFRS) for the first time, up 77% year on year, reaching a record high; the adjusted net interest rate was 17.2%, up 2.2 percentage points year on year.

Aurora (JG.US) Q4 revenue fell 11% year over year, and net loss narrowed to 17.9 million yuan. Aurora's Q4 revenue was 77.4 million yuan, down 11% year on year; net loss attributable to Aurora shareholders was 17.9 million yuan, compared to 32.7 million yuan for the same period last year. Under non-GAAP, the adjusted net loss was $1.8 million, compared to RMB 6.6 million for the same period in 2022. The adjusted EBITDA was 100,000 yuan, and the profit for the same period in 2022 was 600,000 yuan. Aurora Q4's gross profit was 53.3 million yuan, down 11% year on year; total operating expenses were 61.2 million yuan, down 36% year on year. As of December 31, 2023, Aurora held a total of $115 million in cash and cash equivalents and restricted funds, compared to $116.3 million as of December 31, 2022. Aurora's revenue for the full year of 2023 was 290.2 million yuan, down 12% year on year; net loss was 63.9 million yuan, compared with a net loss of 108.5 million yuan for the same period last year.

BOSS Direct Hiring (BZ.US) announced annual results for the year ended December 31, 2023. The group achieved total revenue of 5.952 billion yuan (RMB, same below) during the period, up 31.9% year on year; net profit of 1,099 billion yuan, a significant increase of 925% year on year; adjusted net profit (non-GAAP financial indicator) of 2.56 billion yuan, up 169.7% year on year; basic net profit per share attributable to common shareholders of 0.12 yuan.

Bargain layout! After the Nvidia (NVDA.US) pullback, “hot money” poured in to double the ETF. Although the stock price of Wall Street's AI darling continued last Friday's decline, as trading volume and capital inflows reached record highs, people who are bullish on artificial intelligence are increasingly favoring an ETF that is twice as long as Nvidia. Following a record $252 million in new funding last week, the trading volume of the GraniteShares2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US) reached the second-highest level in history on Monday. The fund provides investors with daily returns twice that of Nvidia and has grown to $1.4 billion since its launch at the end of 2022. Nvidia has become an investment tool for investors large and small, and these investors are convinced that the company is taking advantage of profound technological changes in the global economy to create new wealth creation opportunities for the stock market.

Don't be afraid to chase higher! While Bitcoin continues to rise, MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) is spending another $820 million to sweep the market. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, purchased 12,000 bitcoins for $821.7 million, the second-largest transaction since the company began buying bitcoins nearly four years ago. The new round of purchases increased MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin holdings to around 205,000, worth more than $14 billion. According to MicroStrategy's filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the tokens were purchased between February 26 and March 10. The funds for the purchase came from the $800 million convertible note issuance completed on March 8. Under the leadership of Chairman and Co-Founder Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy began buying Bitcoin in 2020 as a hedge against inflation and as an alternative to cash.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:30 Beijing time: The US CPI rate for February was not seasonally adjusted (%), and the actual monthly weekly salary rate for the US in February (%).

20:55 Beijing time: The annual rate of commercial retail sales of the Red Book in the US for the week ending March 4 (%).

23:00 Beijing time: Monthly rate of the US Cleveland Federal Reserve CPI for February (%).

00:00 a.m. the next day, Beijing time: US March EIA monthly report estimate - current year's Brent crude oil price (USD/barrel)

The next day at 01:00 a.m. Beijing time: US 10-year treasury bond auction on March 12 - total amount (100 million US dollars).

The next day at 04:30 a.m. Beijing time: US API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending March 8 (10,000 barrels). ,

The next day at 00:00 a.m. Beijing time: The EIA releases the monthly short-term energy outlook report.

The next day at 00:15 Beijing time: Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech.

To be determined, OPEC will release the monthly crude oil market report (the specific publication time of the monthly report is yet to be determined; it is generally published around 18-23 o'clock Beijing time).

Performance Forecast

Wednesday pre-market: TOUR.US