Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:KW) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Kennedy-Wilson Holdings's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Kennedy-Wilson Holdings had US$5.30b of debt in December 2023, down from US$5.59b, one year before. However, it does have US$342.7m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$4.96b.
How Healthy Is Kennedy-Wilson Holdings' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Kennedy-Wilson Holdings had liabilities of US$757.9m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$5.16b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$342.7m in cash and US$350.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$5.22b.
This deficit casts a shadow over the US$1.15b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Kennedy-Wilson Holdings would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Weak interest cover of 0.12 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 27.1 hit our confidence in Kennedy-Wilson Holdings like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Kennedy-Wilson Holdings saw its EBIT tank 57% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Kennedy-Wilson Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Kennedy-Wilson Holdings's free cash flow amounted to 28% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
To be frank both Kennedy-Wilson Holdings's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And furthermore, its net debt to EBITDA also fails to instill confidence. Considering all the factors previously mentioned, we think that Kennedy-Wilson Holdings really is carrying too much debt. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Kennedy-Wilson Holdings has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.