Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (HKG:1052) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure had CN¥17.1b in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. However, it does have CN¥2.38b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥14.7b.
How Strong Is Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure had liabilities of CN¥7.83b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥13.8b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥2.38b in cash and CN¥253.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥19.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥5.93b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure's debt is 5.0 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.2 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. On the other hand, Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure grew its EBIT by 27% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
Our View
We feel some trepidation about Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure's difficulty level of total liabilities, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and EBIT growth rate were encouraging signs. It's also worth noting that Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure is in the Infrastructure industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.