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Global Bio-chem Technology Group Company Limited's (HKG:809) Shares Climb 26% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 11 18:34

Global Bio-chem Technology Group Company Limited (HKG:809) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 23% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Global Bio-chem Technology Group is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 1.1x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Food industry have P/S ratios below 0.5x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:809 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 11th 2024

What Does Global Bio-chem Technology Group's Recent Performance Look Like?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Global Bio-chem Technology Group has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Global Bio-chem Technology Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Global Bio-chem Technology Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 62% last year. Still, revenue has fallen 61% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 6.6% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Global Bio-chem Technology Group's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Global Bio-chem Technology Group's P/S?

Global Bio-chem Technology Group's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Global Bio-chem Technology Group revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Global Bio-chem Technology Group you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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