Last week, you might have seen that Evolus, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to US$14.07 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$202m, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$1.08 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Evolus are now predicting revenues of US$263.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 41% to US$0.63. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$263.5m and losses of US$0.66 per share in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$22.29, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Evolus at US$27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Evolus' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 30% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 46% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Evolus' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Evolus. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Evolus going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Evolus you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.