Jinwu Financial News | CMB International said it is cautiously optimistic about real estate and property management. On the sales side, weak sales in February were mainly affected by weak transactions during the Spring Festival holiday. Recently, the number of visits and transactions in the new housing market in first-tier cities has increased on a weekly basis. The bank believes that it is mainly driven by the supply side — developers have entered the centralized promotion stage, and actions such as opening multiple model rooms and discounts have led to an increase in the number of buyers in need to visit, inquire, register their intentions, etc., and drive transactions. However, the overall recovery in transactions is currently only around 45% of the same period up to last year. The bank believes that the March-April sales may continue to maintain the current state of minor restoration due to the developer's vigorous push. On the financing side, the bank believes that “parastatal enterprises entering the thunderstorm list may cause the industry to enter a situation that is difficult to reverse”. In the current context where industry fundamentals have not been effectively repaired and investors' confidence in the sector has been further damaged, supervision may further assist relevant enterprises on the financing side, such as coordinating the implementation of financing practices.
According to the bank, in terms of sector performance, it once again fluctuated due to the developers' debt crisis after a week of moderate recovery after the holiday season. The bank believes that news related to developer debt repayment will continue to disrupt sector performance in March-April. Property management companies have stable cash flow, high dividend rates, and a trend of further increasing dividend payout ratios. We recommend China Resources Vientiane Life (01209), Zhonghai Property (02669), Poly Property (06049), Wanwuyun (02602), Yuexiu Services (06626), etc.; the developer recommended China Resources Land (01109), which has long-term holding value. In terms of asset light, we recommend Shell (02423), the beneficiary of second-hand housing, and Greentown Management (09979), a contract construction company with a high degree of performance delivery and high dividends.