As you might know, Nephros, Inc. (NASDAQ:NEPH) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$14m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.15 some 30% larger than what the analysts had predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nephros from twin analysts is for revenues of US$16.7m in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 56% to US$0.065. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$17.1m and losses of US$0.04 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The analysts lifted their price target 58% to US$4.75, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are not expected to have a longer-term impact on the stock's value.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nephros' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Nephros' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Nephros is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Nephros going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nephros has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.