Shareholders of Uni-President China Holdings Ltd (HKG:220) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to HK$5.52 following its latest annual results. Uni-President China Holdings missed revenue estimates by 3.0%, coming in atCN¥29b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.39 beat expectations, coming in 7.3% ahead of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Uni-President China Holdings' 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥30.6b in 2024. This reflects a credible 7.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 5.4% to CN¥0.37 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥31.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.38 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$7.05, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Uni-President China Holdings' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Uni-President China Holdings at HK$9.76 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$5.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 6.8% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.3% annually. It's clear that while Uni-President China Holdings' revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Uni-President China Holdings. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Uni-President China Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Uni-President China Holdings .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.