Last week, you might have seen that Broadwind, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWEN) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.3% to US$2.40 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$203m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Broadwind surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.36 per share, a notable 15% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Broadwind, is for revenues of US$150.3m in 2024. This implies a concerning 26% reduction in Broadwind's revenue over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$0.18 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$162.6m and losses of US$0.19 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.
The consensus price target fell 6.0% to US$5.88, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Broadwind analyst has a price target of US$8.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 26% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.1% per year. It's pretty clear that Broadwind's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Broadwind analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Broadwind (2 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.