The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaan Securities released a research report saying that in 2023, China's machine tool exports reached 10.532 billion US dollars, +10.6% year-on-year. The average export price increased from 290 US dollars in 2019 to 600 US dollars, and the trend of high-end exports is remarkable. In the context of the acceleration of exports in the machine tool industry, it is recommended to focus on leading machine tool companies that are actively forward-looking to lay out overseas markets. 1) Haitian Precision (601882.SH): A leading enterprise in high-end CNC machine tools, with significant advantages in continuous forward-looking layout. 2) Neway CNC (688697.SH): Diversified product development, improved overseas sales network and rapid growth.
▍ The main views of Huaan Securities are as follows:
Market space: Chinese machine tools have a wide space to go overseas
1) In 2022, China's machine tool production reached 25.7 billion euros, and China's machine tool production and consumption accounted for 32% of the world's production and consumption. The other top 5 producers were Japan, Germany, Italy and the United States, and the top five countries accounted for 72% of the global production share. 2) Judging from the product structure, compared with developed countries in Japan and Germany, there is still a lot of room for improvement in China's machine tool exports: the world's leading high-end CNC machine tool companies are mainly concentrated in Germany, Japan and the United States. Compared with leading overseas companies, the size of China's machine tool companies is still relatively small.
Looking at the global market, although Germany and Japan themselves consume less than China, their machine tool exports are both ranked first and second in the world, and exports play an important role in production consumption. In 2022, Japan and Germany's machine tool exports accounted for 71.2% and 72.6% of production value respectively, which is higher than China's 48pct and 49.35pct respectively. In 2022, China's machine tool exports accounted for 23.24% of production value, an increase of 2.6 pct compared with 2021, but there is still a lot of room for improvement compared with Japan and Germany.
Reviewing Japan and Germany: The export-driven effect of the automobile industry chain is remarkable
Automobiles are the main downstream of machine tools, accounting for 40% of the downstream. 1) Reviewing the history of machine tool development in Japan. The establishment of Japanese Industrial Standards (JIS) in 1940 and automobile exports in 1973 contributed significantly to machine tool exports. By matching the growth rate of Japanese automobile production with the growth rate of machine tool orders, it was found that the growth trend is basically converging. The Japanese automobile industry chain has a significant driving effect on machine tool orders, and at the same time, automobile exports also drive an increase in machine tool exports.
2) The German machine tool industry benefits from the release of global investment demand and energy transformation, and automobile exports provide steady support. Since 2021, the downstream market and user sector of the German machine tool industry have been experiencing a strong and widespread growth trend. In 2021, orders in the German machine tool industry increased by 58%, with the most significant increase coming from overseas markets, with an increase of 62%. Furthermore, the energy transition offers great potential for the German machine tool industry.
The current situation in our country: conditions are becoming more mature, and the advantages of going overseas are remarkable
1) Automobile exports have a significant driving effect on industrial chain exports: in 2023, China's automobile production and sales scale exceeded 30 million units, leading the world for 15 consecutive years. At the same time, with the continuous growth of automobile exports, China's export volume surpassed Japan in 2023, making it the world's largest automobile exporter. The rapid development of the automobile industry chain is expected to drive machine tool exports. In 2023, China's machine tool exports reached US$10.532 billion, +10.6% year-on-year. The average export price increased from US$290 in 2019 to US$600, and the trend of high-end exports is remarkable.
2) Improve the performance of domestic machine tools and continue to help products go overseas: The performance of domestic machine tool products continues to improve, and some can target overseas leaders. Domestic machine tools are expected to continue to explore overseas markets with good product performance and high cost performance. By product, machining centers, as machine tool products with a higher degree of automation, are the most imported machine tool category in China, accounting for up to 36% of China's machine tool imports in 2022; with the increase in the competitiveness of China's machine tool products, machining centers became the product with the highest export growth rate in 2022, +60.6% compared to the same period. Special processing machines and lathes are the most important machine tool products exported.
Risk warning
1) Overseas market development falls short of expectations; 2) the risk of falling overseas demand; 3) imports of core components are blocked; 4) raw material prices have risen sharply.