Those holding Guangdong Advertising Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002400) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Looking further back, the 17% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 29x, you may consider Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd as a stock to avoid entirely with its 53.8x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
For instance, Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 3.6% decrease to the company's bottom line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
In light of this, it's alarming that Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's P/E?
Shares in Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd that you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.