Komo expects that the Hong Kong property market turnover will improve by 30% year on year, but residential property prices will still fall 5% to 10%. Compared with property market turnover, property prices are driving Hong Kong developers' stock prices even more strongly.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that on March 5, according to an article published by Xiaomo, the Hong Kong property market sales rebounded after the withdrawal, and Hong Kong developers' stock prices rose moderately by 1%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, reflecting the market's improvement in the removal of the property market. However, Xiaomo believes that investors will not be overly excited about the prospects of the Hong Kong residential property market, and that their interest in entering the market is limited. Even if short-term property prices and turnover are boosted by the latest news, property prices may once again return to a downward trajectory in the face of more new listings being sold. Hong Kong property market turnover is expected to improve 30% year on year, but residential property prices are still down 5% to 10%. Compared with property market turnover, property prices are driving Hong Kong developers' stock prices even more strongly.
Xiaomo said that the rebound in property market transactions after the withdrawal was mainly due to two major reasons: first, buyers waited and waited on the budget, which left behind a backlog of demand in the property market; second, based on the experience of first-tier cities in mainland China, property market turnover would rise for the next 1 to 2 months, but then fell again. If the situation in the Hong Kong property market was similar, it released demand that had been suppressed before.
By the end of 2023, Hong Kong's first-hand property stock had risen to a 25-month high, reaching 23,000 units, and there were more than 40,000 potential sales units, compared to 11,000 units sold last year. According to Komo, even with an optimistic estimate this year, if the number of units sold for the whole year rises to 22,000, it will still take more than 30 months to absorb all potential new inventory. On the second-hand property side, Komo believes that many of the second-hand transaction cases in the past few days left the market at a loss, reflecting the fact that the buyers' confidence in property prices is still weak.
Furthermore, according to Komo, when market news about the property market turns negative again, such as a decrease in delivery speed, it is believed that the short selling ratio of Hong Kong developers' stock prices may rise again.