The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2024, the quality of content-side supply is expected to improve, and the recovery of movies is more optimistic. 1) Considering the supply cycle of domestic movies and Hollywood movies, with the release of strong demand, the Chinese film box office is expected to break through the level of 64.2 billion yuan in 2019 and reach a record high. At the same time, thanks to the characteristics of high operating leverage, the broadcasting channel is expected to usher in a better profit release period; 2) In the short term, more than 100,000 people want to watch 14 movies after the Spring Festival. Two imported films will soon be released and the film “Let's Shake the Sun Together”, the film market is expected to continue to benefit.

▍ The main views of Guoxin Securities are as follows:

The box office and number of movie viewers reached a record high, topping the Spring Festival box office list in film history.

In 2024, the box office of the Chinese New Year festival was 7.306 billion (excluding service fees), an increase of 17.65% over the previous year, making it the highest in the history of Chinese Spring Festival movies. The average ticket price was 44.5 yuan, down 7.10% from the previous year. The average number of moviegoers exceeded 160 million, an increase of 26.36% over the previous year. The increase in the number of movie viewers is the core driving force behind this Spring Festival box office growth.

Content side: The head effect is remarkable. The release of demand for movie viewing and the increase in the number of people are driving the box office upward.

1) A total of 8 movies were screened this year. Among them, “Hot and Hot” and “Flying Life 2” contributed 63.66% of the total box office. Producers related to listed companies included Light Media, Cat Eye Entertainment, Hengdian Film and Television, China Film, Wanda Film, etc.; 2) Against the backdrop of high absolute value and concentration of the Spring Festival box office contribution and declining ticket prices, the increase in the number of moviegoers is driving up the overall box office, reflecting the current recovery in the Chinese film market and the strong demand for high-quality films.

Channel side: The concentration of cinema lines has declined, the concentration of film projection continues to increase, and the competitive structure continues to improve.

In terms of channels, 1) the concentration of top 10 cinema companies showed a downward trend, falling from 69.72% in 2019 to 64.14% in 2024; among them, the market share of Top 10,000 theaters increased year by year, from 12.9% in 2019 to 15.4% in 2024; 2) the concentration of film and video projection companies continued to increase, from 18.13% in 2019 to 31.19% in 2024; 3) Looking at the trend, broadcasting channels continued to clear up and market concentration continued to improve.

Looking ahead to 2024: The quality of content-side supply is expected to improve, and the recovery of movies is more optimistic.

1) Considering the supply cycle of domestic movies and Hollywood movies, with the release of strong demand, the Chinese film box office is expected to break through the level of 64.2 billion yuan in 2019 and reach a record high. At the same time, thanks to the characteristics of high operating leverage, the broadcasting channel is expected to usher in a better profit release period; 2) In the short term, more than 100,000 people want to watch 14 movies after the Spring Festival. Two imported films will soon be released and the film “Let's Shake the Sun Together”, the film market is expected to continue to benefit.

Risk warning:

Repeated epidemics; risk of policy regulation; insufficient supply of content; increased market competition.