GEM Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002340) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 25% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 31% in the last twelve months.
Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that GEM's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 33x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in China, where the median P/E ratio is around 30x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
GEM has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will eventually fall in line with most others in the market. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping it doesn't keep underperforming if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's not in favour.
How Is GEM's Growth Trending?
GEM's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 34%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 62% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 95% as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 41%, which is noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's curious that GEM's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
What We Can Learn From GEM's P/E?
GEM's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of GEM's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for GEM (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.