Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002653) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.
Since its price has surged higher, Haisco Pharmaceutical Group may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 74.6x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 30x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
Recent times have been pleasing for Haisco Pharmaceutical Group as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
How Is Haisco Pharmaceutical Group's Growth Trending?
Haisco Pharmaceutical Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 115% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 29% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the one analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 6.8% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 41% growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's alarming that Haisco Pharmaceutical Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Final Word
Shares in Haisco Pharmaceutical Group have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Haisco Pharmaceutical Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Haisco Pharmaceutical Group you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of Haisco Pharmaceutical Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.