American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$422m, some 3.1% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$1.32, 39% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on American Woodmark after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, American Woodmark's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.85b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 12% to US$8.46. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.43 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 6.5% to US$102. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic American Woodmark analyst has a price target of US$122 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$88.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.3% per year. It's pretty clear that American Woodmark's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that American Woodmark's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on American Woodmark. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for American Woodmark going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that American Woodmark is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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