Last week, you might have seen that Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:KPTI) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.4% to US$1.19 in the past week. Karyopharm Therapeutics reported revenues of US$146m, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$1.25 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Karyopharm Therapeutics after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, Karyopharm Therapeutics' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$146.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.23. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$157.9m and losses of US$1.06 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a noticeable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The consensus price target fell 9.3% to US$5.57, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Karyopharm Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$8.00 and the most bearish at US$3.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Karyopharm Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 32% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Karyopharm Therapeutics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Karyopharm Therapeutics' future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Karyopharm Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Karyopharm Therapeutics (2 are significant!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.