It hasn't been the best quarter for CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CEIX) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 21% in that time. But over the last three years the stock has shone bright like a diamond. In fact, the share price has taken off in that time, up 692%. Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. The thing to consider is whether there is still too much elation around the company's prospects. It really delights us to see such great share price performance for investors.
Since the stock has added US$245m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
CONSOL Energy became profitable within the last three years. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that CONSOL Energy has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling CONSOL Energy stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between CONSOL Energy's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for CONSOL Energy shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 749%, over the last 3 years, is better than the share price return.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that CONSOL Energy shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 41% over one year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 23%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for CONSOL Energy that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course CONSOL Energy may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.