It's been a mediocre week for uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$5.59 in the week since its latest full-year results. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$16m in revenue arriving 4.8% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$6.59, some 3.1% below consensus predictions. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering uniQure are now predicting revenues of US$58.0m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a substantial 266% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 33% to US$4.31. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$64.3m and US$4.04 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts are negative in this update. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a moderate increase in to its losses per share forecasts.
The consensus price target fell 25% to US$22.62, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic uniQure analyst has a price target of US$37.48 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.01. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting uniQure's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 266% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 26% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect uniQure to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of uniQure's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for uniQure going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for uniQure that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.