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光大证券:惠普、慧与、戴尔科技业绩表现不一 AI服务器需求强劲增长

Everbright Securities: Hewlett-Packard, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, and Dell Technologies had mixed performance and strong growth in AI server demand

Zhitong Finance ·  Mar 3 03:54

Dell Technology's FY4Q24 performance exceeded market expectations, and the AI server business grew strongly.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that HP (HPQ.US) FY1Q24 revenue declined year on year, and personal systems business performance was slightly sluggish; HPE (HPE.US) FY1Q24 revenue fell year on year, EPS exceeded the guideline range; server and hybrid cloud business revenue is expected to improve quarterly; Dell Technology (DELL.US) FY4Q24's performance exceeded market expectations, and the AI server business grew strongly.

The AI computing power industry chain continues to be booming. It is recommended to focus on: 1) Nvidia related industry chains. ① AI chip: Nvidia (NVDA.US), Intel (INTC.US); ② server: ultra-micro computer (SMCI.US), Lenovo Group (00992), IFC (601138.SH); ③ Cloud technology service provider: Oracle; ④ Optical module: Zhongji Xuchuang (300208.SZ), Xinyisheng (300502.SZ); ⑤ HBM: Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US), SK Hynix (MU.US ⑥);: Sun Moonlight , Amkor Technology; 2) Domestic AI computing power industry chain: Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Cambrian (688256.SH), Inspur Information (000977.SZ), Hi-Tech Development (000628.SZ), Runjian Co., Ltd. (002929.SZ).

Incident: Hewlett-Packard, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, and Dell Technologies released their results reports for the three months ended January 31, 2024 on February 28/29/29, US time, respectively.

HP FY1Q24 revenue declined year on year, and personal systems business performance was slightly sluggish: HP FY1Q24's revenue was US$13.2 billion, down 4.4% year on year; non-GAAP diluted EPS of US$0.81, between US$0.76 and US$0.86 of the company's guidance; and EPS after GAAP dilution was $0.62, between $0.60-0.70 of the company's guidance. FY1Q24's personal systems business revenue was US$8.8 billion, down 4.1% year on year. Performance was slightly sluggish due to weak demand and adverse effects on the product portfolio; profit margin before tax (OP rate) was 6.1%, up 0.9 pct year on year due to reduced product and logistics costs and cost optimization. Among them, commercial/consumer PC revenue accounted for 69%/31%, revenue decreased by 5%/1% year on year, respectively, and shipment volume increased 2%/10% year on year, respectively. The company expects high single-digit month-on-month decline in FY2Q24 personal systems business revenue, in line with seasonal rules; the PC market is expected to grow by a low single digit in 2024. FY1Q24 printer revenue was US$4.4 billion, down 5.1% year over year due to weak demand, aggressive pricing, and declining share. The company guides FY2Q24 non-GAAP diluted EPS of USD 0.76-0.86; FY2Q24 GAAP diluted EPS of USD 0.58-0.68.

HPE FY1Q24 revenue declined year-on-year, with EPS exceeding the guidance range; server and hybrid cloud business revenue is expected to improve quarterly: HPE FY1Q24 revenue was US$6.8 billion, down 14% year over year due to weak demand for network products and AI server GPU shortages; non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.48, down 24% year on year and 8% month-on-month. Supercompany guidance was the median value of US$0.42-0.50; after GAAP dilution, EPS was $0.29, down 24% year over month, down 41% month-on-month, exceeding corporate guidance 0.24- median value of $0.32. By business, FY1Q24 server business revenue was 3.4 billion US dollars, down 23% year on year, profit margin before tax; smart edge business revenue was 1.2 billion US dollars, up 3% year on year, profit before tax rate 29.4%; hybrid cloud business revenue was 1.2 billion US dollars, down 10% year on year, and profit before tax was 3.8%. FY1Q24's cumulative accelerated processor orders rose to $4 billion, driven by HPE Cray EX and XT series solutions and HPE ProLiant Gen11 AI servers. Based on: 1) strong demand for AI servers; 2) improved GPU supply, the company expects server and hybrid cloud business revenue to improve quarterly. The company directed FY2Q24 revenue of $66-7 billion; non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.36-0.41; GAAP diluted EPS of $0.20-0.25.

Dell Technology's FY4Q24 performance exceeded market expectations, and the AI server business grew strongly: Dell Technology's FY4Q24 revenue was US$22.3 billion, down 11% year on year and flat month on month; non-GAAP net profit was US$1.61 billion, up 22% year on year and 16% month on month, surpassing Bloomberg's agreed forecast of US$1,247 million by about 29%. By business, CSG's business revenue was 11.7 billion US dollars, down 12% year on year and 5% month on month, of which commercial/consumer PC revenue was 96/2.2 billion US dollars respectively; profit margin before tax was 6.2%, up 1.2 pct year on year; PC TRU (unit shipping revenue) was 1,220 US dollars, nearly double that of the same industry, and the gap continued to widen since FY4Q19. Based on: 1) Win10 will stop updating in '25; 2) AI PCs drive demand for switching, and the company expects a further recovery in the 2H24 global PC market. ISG's business revenue was US$9.3 billion, down 6% year on year, up 10% month-on-month, and profit margin before tax was 15.3%. Server and network revenue was 4.9 billion US dollars. Separated, demand for traditional general-purpose servers increased year-on-year and increased for 3 consecutive quarters; AI server revenue reached 800 million US dollars, up 40% month-on-month, accounting for 16.3% of ISG's business revenue, and unfulfilled orders doubled to 2.9 billion US dollars. Storage revenue was $4.5 billion, up 16% month-on-month, and demand growth was higher than normal seasonality. The company guides FY25's revenue of $910-95 billion, and is expected to: 1) low single-digit (low-single-digit) growth in the CSG business; 2) 15% to 16% (mid-teens) growth in ISG business due to the return of AI-driven, traditional general-purpose servers and storage; guide FY25's non-GAAP EPS of $7.25-7.75, surpassing Bloomberg's unanimous expectation of $7.19.

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