With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.3x The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Middleby has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Middleby's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 7.2%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 99% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the eight analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 14% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 11% per year, which is noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we can see why Middleby is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
As we suspected, our examination of Middleby's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Middleby you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of Middleby's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.