Nerdy, Inc. (NYSE:NRDY) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.3% to US$2.90 in the week after its latest annual results. Revenues of US$193m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.41, some 15% smaller than was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nerdy from eight analysts is for revenues of US$237.5m in 2024. If met, it would imply a huge 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 11% from last year to US$0.33. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$237.9m and losses of US$0.38 per share in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Nerdy'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$4.58, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nerdy at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.25. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Nerdy's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 23% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 17% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Nerdy to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$4.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nerdy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Nerdy you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.