Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 41% over the past week following Beyond Meat, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BYND) latest full-year results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$343m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$5.26 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Beyond Meat after the latest results.
After the latest results, the consensus from Beyond Meat's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$328.5m in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 4.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 58% to US$2.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$344.4m and losses of US$3.03 per share in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have fallen somewhat, Beyond Meat'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a very favorable reduction to the loss per share forecasts in particular.
The consensus price target rose 22% to US$7.00, with the analysts increasingly optimistic about shrinking losses, despite the expected decline in revenue. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Beyond Meat analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Beyond Meat's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.3% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.6% per year. It's pretty clear that Beyond Meat's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Beyond Meat analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Beyond Meat has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.