Last week, you might have seen that Patterson Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ:PDCO) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.9% to US$27.09 in the past week. Patterson Companies reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.6b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.52, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Patterson Companies' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$6.77b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 3.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.19, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.24 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$30.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Patterson Companies analyst has a price target of US$34.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$28.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Patterson Companies is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Patterson Companies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Patterson Companies is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Patterson Companies' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$30.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Patterson Companies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Patterson Companies (2 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.