Shareholders of Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to US$19.25 following its latest annual results. Vipshop Holdings reported CN¥113b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥14.42 beat expectations, being 6.7% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vipshop Holdings' 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥118.9b in 2024. This reflects a modest 5.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 2.1% to CN¥15.30. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥117.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥14.37 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 13% to US$21.18. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vipshop Holdings at US$25.01 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.13. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that Vipshop Holdings is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vipshop Holdings following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Vipshop Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Vipshop Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Vipshop Holdings that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.