Investors in Clear Secure, Inc. (NYSE:YOU) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.3% to close at US$19.25 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues were US$614m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.31, an impressive 35% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Clear Secure after the latest results.
Following the latest results, Clear Secure's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$748.8m in 2024. This would be a major 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 104% to US$0.61. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$742.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.43 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the considerable lift to earnings per share expectations following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$25.75, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Clear Secure, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$40.00 and the most bearish at US$18.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Clear Secure's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 22% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 39% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Clear Secure's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Clear Secure's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Clear Secure analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Clear Secure has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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