The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities released a research report saying that the prediction of this repair process is nearing completion, and the probability that the market will fluctuate after a sharp decline is clearly rising. Looking at it now, it is necessary to acknowledge that the current core contradictions in fundamentals (real estate and fiscal policy) have not been resolved. As long as it is clear that Q2/Q3 can see an inflection point in A-share profit growth, then in the first half of the year, with continued recovery in liquidity and risk appetite, it is expected to support the judgment that the market is likely to fluctuate after a sharp decline. Looking at the historical review, the volatile market dominated the two directions after the sharp decline: low sentiment, Delg+ large small to medium market growth. Corresponsibly, the bank's pricing advantage of March technology (AI technology+new quality productivity) + going overseas (large market growth field: three lines of going overseas, approved cars, ships, and electricity) will still be obvious.

The top ten gold stocks in March: Xinji Energy (601918.SH), Midea Group (000333.SZ), Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), IFF (601138.SH), China Mobile (), China Micro (Dubai), Nengke Technology (Sichuan), Ingenious Home (301061.SZ), China Construction (Logistics), and China Life Insurance (). 600941.SH 688012.SH 603859.SH 601800.SH 601628.SH

SDIC Securities views are as follows:

Looking back at the views before the Spring Festival, the bank has repeatedly emphasized that as long as the liquidity crisis in the stock market is lifted, even after the Spring Festival, there is a high possibility of a short-term technical rebound to a short-term recovery to the bottom of the long-term balance of the Shanghai Composite Index (historical review: room for an upward movement of about 10% from the bottom of the lowest point). At the same time, it is very clear that the post-holiday market fully validates the bank's repeated views: post-holiday restoration+small and medium market revival+leading technology. At present, this repair process is nearing completion, and the probability that the market will fluctuate after a sharp fall is clearly rising.

Looking at the historical market of A-shares, the sharp rise was followed by a sharp decline, and the sharp decline was followed by a shock.

Assumptions about the mid-term environmental perception: The bank is still in an analogical position of the industry after the collapse in 2016. Entering a volatile market after the sharp decline, it is believed that there will still be a structural market, and it is not easy to make an analogy judgment from 08-09. The main basis for being able to stop the decline and enter a volatile market in the later stages of the sharp decline is the expectation that fundamentals will “not get worse” in the next six months. At the same time, the expectation of a clear upward inflection point in molecular fundamentals is the primary sign of a market reversal (for example, profit growth in Q2 2016 and Q1A shares bottomed out in 2009). Further judging is based on the three core factors of the DDM model: fundamentals, liquidity, and risk appetite. Generally, when the certainty of at least one factor continues to improve drastically, the market is likely to break out of the volatile market; when two factors improve sequentially, it is more likely to enter a volatile market. In fact, fundamentals continued to bottom out in the first half of 2016, but liquidity and risk appetite continued to improve month-on-month under policy support, creating a volatile market after a sharp decline. Looking at it now, it is necessary to acknowledge that the current core contradictions in fundamentals (real estate and fiscal policy) have not been resolved. As long as it is clear that Q2/Q3 can see an inflection point in A-share profit growth, then in the first half of the year, with continued recovery in liquidity and risk appetite, it is expected to support the judgment that the market is likely to fluctuate after a sharp decline.

At the structural level, dividends are dominant in January, when market value is high. In February, small and medium market technology prevailed. The market style changed rapidly, and the interpretation was quite extreme.

In fact, the bank's view that high dividends have always been one of the effective strategies in the medium term has not changed. Most notable is the impact of value-oriented regulatory practices on pricing in the small and medium market sector. At present, it is still necessary to follow up and observe whether the stricter regulatory environment has fundamentally reversed the pattern of medium to medium market dominance. The phenomenon of large and small market differentiation and convergence is a capital factor. Essentially, the medium term still revolves around the impact of finance and real estate on the general market style level and the impact of the iterative evolution of scientific and technological innovation on the industrial level. Currently, the bank is still looking forward to the extension of “new quality productivity” and “scientific and technological innovation as the top priority of economic work in 2024” at subsequent important meetings. Using the China Securities 2000 Index as the lower value limit for small and medium capitalization investments is still tenable. In fact, looking at the historical review, the volatile market after the sharp decline dominated the two directions: low sentiment, Delg+, and large small to medium market growth. Corresponsibly, the bank's pricing advantage of March technology (AI technology+new quality productivity) + going overseas (large market growth field: three lines of going overseas, approved cars, ships, and electricity) will still be obvious.

Facing the current market, how to break the game and win in the process of style iteration is the key.

If you take a closer look, you will find that market growth is still effective in terms of excessive performance when it comes to overseas pricing. Over the past year, there has been less fluctuation than technology, and earnings are higher than high dividends. Regardless of whether technology+ high dividends are repeated back and forth, the direction in which excess income is still effective is overseas pricing for market growth. What needs to be emphasized once again is that overseas pricing based on the industry's global competitiveness is the winner and loser for market growth. This means that the target market value is at least 20 billion dollars, and it is recommended that the three overseas routes are approved for vehicle (commercial vehicle) shipbuilding electricity. This is particularly evident in the fields of home appliances, ships, buses, forklifts, and heavy trucks from the beginning of the year to the present.

Short-term overmatch industries: technology stock mapping (TMT+ pharmaceutical+humanoid robots); global competitiveness of the industry (robot parts, commercial vehicles, auto parts, ships, optical modules, home appliances, smart logistics), high dividends (energy, electricity, home appliances and operators); consumption substitution. Index investment focuses on the China Securities 1000 Index.

Risk warning: Increased friction between China and the US, policies falling short of expectations, changes in overseas monetary policies.