Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 31% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 46% in the last twelve months.
Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Xinyi Solar Holdings' P/E ratio of 10.1x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
Xinyi Solar Holdings certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings will be less resilient moving forward. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Does Growth Match The P/E?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Xinyi Solar Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 9.5% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 15% overall drop in EPS. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 22% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to only expand by 16% each year, which is noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's curious that Xinyi Solar Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
What We Can Learn From Xinyi Solar Holdings' P/E?
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Xinyi Solar Holdings' P/E is also back up to the market median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of Xinyi Solar Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Xinyi Solar Holdings that we have uncovered.
You might be able to find a better investment than Xinyi Solar Holdings. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.