The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that it reaffirmed the ASMPT (00522) “gain” rating, believing that the profit growth brought about by Advanced Packaging (AP) is conducive to further adjustment of the rating. The target price was raised 23% from HK$88 to HK$108, making the valuation attractive. However, the bank lowered its profit forecast for 2024-2025 to reflect the weakness of the mainstream instruments business and introduced a 2026 growth forecast.
The bank expects ASMPT's TCB (hot pressure welding) shipments to increase by more than 100% this year. Current data shows that the number of TCBs installed has reached about 350 units. The total TCB shipment volume for the period from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be about the same as in 2012-2021. The company indicated that TCB can also support future 16-Hi HBM (high widescreen memory), but whether this is true is still debated. However, TCB may be more cost competitive than hybrid welding (HB).
According to the report, the company's order volume increased by 20% quarterly in the first quarter of 2024, mainly benefiting from the strong momentum of AP tools, but revenue declined by 8%, mainly due to the continued normalization of the SMT business. It is expected that the first-quarter order-shipment ratio may return to 1.0 again. Additionally, TSMC, one of ASMPT's foundry customers, also has more potential advantages. I believe that with the experience of cooperating with Intel, ASMPT can have a better position.