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The Aaron's Company, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAN) Price Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 28 08:27

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 0.4x in the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about The Aaron's Company, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAN) P/S ratio of 0.1x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:AAN Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 28th 2024

How Aaron's Company Has Been Performing

Aaron's Company could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Aaron's Company.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Aaron's Company would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.9%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 23% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 2.4% per annum over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 6.5% each year growth forecast for the broader industry.

In light of this, it's curious that Aaron's Company's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Aaron's Company's P/S Mean For Investors?

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of Aaron's Company's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Aaron's Company you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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