Open Source Securities said that a number of blockbuster games are expected to be launched in 2024, and the new product cycle may lead to an increase in the performance growth rate of related companies.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report stating that 111 domestic game editions will be issued in February 2024. The bank believes that the number of game versions in 2024 is expected to increase from 2023. Continued distribution of versions, increase in the number of editions, and the acquisition of major games will help boost industry development and market confidence, or drive an increase in the valuation of the game sector. In addition, Google released Genie, a basic world model to generate interactive environments or help generate game scenes. It is recommended that the game section configuration continue to be strengthened. Key recommendations: Shenzhou Taiyue (300002.SZ), Kaiying Network (002517.SZ), Shengtian Network (300494.SZ), Xindong (02400), Yaoji Technology (002605.SZ), Tencent Holdings (00700), etc.
Open source securities views are as follows:
In February 2024, 111 domestic game versions were released, and “Black Myths: Goku” was issued a game version number
On February 27, the official website of the State Press and Publication Administration published the February domestic game version approval information. In February, 111 domestic game versions were released, and approval information was changed for 5 games owned by listed companies, including Tencent's “Dabong Changjin”, “Wilderness Origins”, “Taiko Master”, NetEase's “Operation Apocalypse”, “Eternity” (mobile version added), Perfect World “Perfect New World”, Wangchen Technology's “Baseball Master”, Zen Tour Technology's “Stickman Ranger”, “Battle in the Snow”, China Qingbao's “Kyushu Yuanyi Song” and “Qumaru Network” “Carnival Racing”, etc. The number of domestic game versions released in January/February 2024 was 115/111, respectively, an increase of 28/24 compared to January/February 2024 in 2023.
In terms of products, the current domestic game version includes many blockbuster games. NetEase's “Eternity” mobile game has surpassed 40 million players worldwide in more than 2 years. It has now received a mobile game version, and testing will begin on April 1. The subsequent launch performance is worth looking forward to. Also, it is worth paying special attention to the fact that “Black Myths: Goku” developed by a game science company has obtained a PC version and will be released on August 20, 2024. The game is known as the first 3A game in China. It is produced using the Unreal 5 engine, and is highly anticipated by the market. The bank believes that in 2024, the number of game versions is expected to increase from 2023. Continued distribution of versions, an increase in the number of editions, and the acquisition of major games will help boost industry development and market confidence, or drive an increase in the valuation of the game sector.
A number of blockbuster games are expected to be launched in 2024, and the new product cycle may increase the performance growth rate of related companies
On January 23, the placement RPG game “Let's Go Muffin”, developed by Xindong, went live in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. As of February 27, it continued to rank in the top 5 iOS bestsellers, and China Service is expected to be launched at an accelerated pace. On February 22, Thunder Games announced that the officially licensed One Piece mobile game “ONE PIECE: Dream Pointer”, which is jointly distributed with Aofei Games, will be launched soon. “Ni no Kuni: Interlaced Worlds” and NetEase's “Conjuring” are also scheduled to launch on February 28 and March 28, respectively. Additionally, Tencent's “Dungeons and Warriors: Origins” will be pre-tested on February 29, 2024. The sequential launch of major products is expected to lead to increased performance and an increase in the industry's growth rate.
Google releases Genie, a basic world model to generate interactive environments or help generate game scenes
On February 26, Google released the basic world model Genie. Genie is a basic world model with 11 billion parameters that can generate playable interactive environments through a single image prompt. Genie consists of three parts: a potential motion model to infer potential action between each pair of frames; a video tokenizer to convert the original video frame into a discrete token; and a dynamic model to predict the next frame of the video given the potential action and past frame tokens. According to Google, Genie focuses on 2D platform games and robotics videos. The bank believes that AI technology that can create a new interactive environment with only one image opens the door to various new paths for generating and entering the virtual world.
Interactive experiences are one of the most important content experiences in games. The development of world models or the generation of game scenarios can create a large number of interactive environments at low cost, enhance game interactivity and sense of engagement, thereby enriching the monetization model. It is recommended to continue to increase the allocation of the game section.
Risk warning: The launch time or performance of new games falls short of expectations; game industry policies are uncertain.