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Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) Shareholders Notch a 14% CAGR Over 5 Years, yet Earnings Have Been Shrinking

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 27 07:07

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. To wit, the Shake Shack share price has climbed 95% in five years, easily topping the market return of 73% (ignoring dividends).

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

We don't think that Shake Shack's modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.

For the last half decade, Shake Shack can boast revenue growth at a rate of 17% per year. That's well above most pre-profit companies. While the compound gain of 14% per year is good, it's not unreasonable given the strong revenue growth. If the strong revenue growth continues, we'd expect the share price to follow, in time. Of course, you'll have to research the business more fully to figure out if this is an attractive opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:SHAK Earnings and Revenue Growth February 27th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for Shake Shack in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Shake Shack shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 81% over the last year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 14%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. You could get a better understanding of Shake Shack's growth by checking out this more detailed historical graph of earnings, revenue and cash flow.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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