1. On February 27 (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.05%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.11%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.21%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.45%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.03%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.02%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.25%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.26% to $77.38 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.29% to $81.43 per barrel.

Market news

CEO Komo: The commercial real estate crisis will not break out, and the possibility of a soft landing for the US economy is 50%. J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently said in an interview that if the economy recedes, commercial real estate problems will only worsen, and many owners can cope with the current pressure. “If we don't fall into recession, I think most people will be able to get through the difficult times, refinance, and invest more money,” he said in an interview. Dimon pointed out that not all commercial real estate sub-sectors are at risk, such as warehouses and data centers. “But if you only have offices, the value of those assets will decrease due to interest rates. When interest rates rise by 300 basis points, any cash flow you hold will shrink by 30%. It's not a crisis. This is something we all know.” As for the increasing number of defaults, Dimon believes, “This is just a process of normalization.”

Legendary investors warn: the FOMO frenzy may peak, and US stock returns may be bleak in the next 12 years. Legendary investor John Hussman said that as the rise in US stocks driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment seems to be about to peak, stock market returns may be bleak for the next 10 years or more. The president of Hussman Investment Trust said that US stocks have risen sharply in the past four months, and the S&P 500 index has reached a record high in 2024. Hussman said in Sunday's report, but this is mainly due to Wall Street's “almost crazy 'fear of missing'”, which will cause trouble for the stock market in the long run. “Many pressures are fueling this fear: recent record highs in the stock market, enthusiasm for a 'soft land' for the economy, expectations of the Fed's' shift 'to cutting interest rates, and recent optimism about the future of artificial intelligence,” Hussman said.

The sequelae of the US interest rate hike are showing, and the economic boom cannot resist the pessimism of American consumers. In recent weeks, most US economic data has been positive. At a time when the US economy is unexpectedly strong, American consumer confidence is relatively pessimistic. According to the consumer confidence index released by the University of Michigan in the US on the 16th, the data rose slightly from 79 in January to 79.6 in February, lower than economists' median expectations of 80. Despite rising consumer confidence, the index is still below pre-pandemic levels and 6% lower than the long-term average. This contrast has puzzled many economists. The Zhitong Finance App learned that a paper published by researchers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Harvard University (including former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers) suggests that rising borrowing costs may solve this mystery.

Yellen: The global economy is still resilient, and the US is the key driver of its growth. US Treasury Secretary Yellen will say at a press conference before the Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers meeting to be held in Sao Paulo, Brazil on Tuesday that strong US economic growth is a “key driver” for global growth to be better than expected. In an excerpt from a speech published by the US Treasury, Yellen said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other forecasting agencies had predicted that the global economy would slow across the board in 2023, but that was not the case. She said that in contrast, the global economy grew by 3.1%, exceeding expectations, and inflation has also declined. Prices in about 80% of the economies are expected to continue to fall this year. “Looking ahead, we are still aware of the risks to the global outlook and continue to carefully monitor economic challenges in some countries, but the global economy remains resilient,” she said.

Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman: There is no need for the Federal Reserve to pre-emptively cut interest rates. Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman Jeffrey Schmid hinted in his first policy speech on Monday that he is still concerned about the threat of high inflation and is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Jeffrey Schmid said in his first public speech since taking office in August last year: “Given that inflation is above target, the labor market is tight, and demand is showing quite strong momentum, my personal opinion is that there is no need to pre-emptively adjust policy positions. Instead, I think the best course of action is to be patient, continue to watch the economy's response to the policy austerity that has occurred, and wait for convincing evidence that the fight against inflation has been won.” Jeffrey Schmid's remarks suggest that his hawkish views are in line with recent Kansas Federal Reserve presidents. Jeffrey Schmid's remarks are in line with the signals sent by other Federal Reserve policymakers in recent weeks.

Binge on gold! The daily trading volume of new spot ETFs reached a record high, and Bitcoin rose above $57,000. On Monday, the price of Bitcoin reached almost $5.5 million. On Tuesday, Bitcoin broke through the $55,000 mark. As of press release, Bitcoin continued to rise, breaking through $57,000 per coin. Nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs set a new record for total trading volume in a single day on Monday, with trading activity reaching $2.4 billion. Second, according to CoinShares data, crypto investment products provided by asset management companies such as Ark Invest, Bitwise, BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, ProShares, and 21Shares achieved capital inflows for the fourth week in a row, increasing the world by 598 million US dollars last week. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs set a new record for total trading volume in a single day on Monday, with trading activity reaching $2.4 billion.

Individual stock news

Yuchai International (CYD.US) H2 revenue increased 18.9% year over year, and engine sales increased 5.2% year over year. Yuchai International's H2 revenue was 8.9 billion yuan (RMB, same below), compared to 7.5 billion yuan for the same period last year, up 18.9%; net profit attributable to the company's shareholders was 107.1 million yuan, compared to 124.9 million yuan for the same period last year; basic and diluted earnings per share were 2.62 yuan, compared to 3.06 yuan for the same period last year. The total sales volume of H2 engines was 147,700 units, an increase of 5.2% over 140,345 units in the same period last year.

Macy's (M.US)'s adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2023 are $2.45, which is expected to be $1.99. Net profit of $685 million is expected to be $553 million. Revenue of $8.12 billion, expected to be $8.11 billion. Looking ahead, Macy's expects revenue for the 2024 fiscal year to be between US$22.2 billion and US$22.9 billion.

Low.US (LOW.US)'s adjusted earnings per share exceeded market expectations. Net profit for the fourth fiscal quarter was US$1 billion, or US$1.77 per share, compared to US$957 million, or US$1.58 per share, in the same period last year. Lowe's adjusted earnings per share were $2.28, compared to the market research analysts' model of $1.68. Revenue fell from $22.4 billion to $18.6 billion. Looking ahead, the company expects revenue of $84 billion to $85 billion in 2024 compared to an estimated $85.61 billion, and earnings per share of $12.00 to $12.30, which is expected to be $12.95.

Zoom's (ZM.US) Q4 performance exceeded expectations, and customer attrition rates remained low. Zoom Video Communications's fourth-quarter revenue was US$1.15 billion, up 2.6% year over year, better than market expectations of US$1.13 billion; earnings per share, excluding some projects, were US$1.42, better than market expectations of US$1.15. The company also announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase after the company's $1 billion license, which began in 2022, expired this month. Zoom said in its earnings report that the number of contact center licenses has almost tripled from the previous year, and 95 phone customers have more than 10,000 active users. Approximately 500,000 accounts have enabled Zoom's artificial intelligence free companion. Corporate revenue increased 4.9% to US$667.3 million. By the end of the quarter, the company had 2204,000 enterprise customers, of which 3,810 had contributed more than $100,000 in revenue over the past 12 months.

The parent company of API.US (API.US) generated revenue of US$3.64 million in 2023Q4, achieving its first profit in 3 years. Sound Network parent company Agora, Inc., announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. According to financial reports, Agora, Inc. achieved revenue of 3.64 million US dollars in the fourth quarter, an increase of 3% over the previous year, and total revenue of 142 million US dollars for the whole year; adjusted net profit for the fourth quarter was 1.4 million US dollars, achieving the first quarterly profit in three years.

GOTU.US (GOTU.US)'s Q4 earnings revenue exceeded expectations, and the quarterly net operating cash inflow reached 492 million. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Gaotu achieved revenue of 761 million yuan, up 20.9% year on year; cash revenue of 1,278 billion yuan, up 28.1% year on year; and net operating cash inflow of 492 million yuan. At the same time, Gaotu's cash revenue in fiscal year 2023 reached 3.339 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 31.7%; the annual net operating cash inflow increased significantly year-on-year, an increase of about 5.5 times over the previous year, which is the best proof that the company's operating efficiency continues to improve; while achieving growth and positive cash, it achieved full-year profit. Non-US GAAP net profit was 51.06 million yuan. In terms of capital reserves, as of December 31, 2023, the total cash reserves on the company's accounts exceeded 4 billion yuan, providing sufficient guarantees for continued business development. At the same time, the company continued to promote stock repurchases, with a cumulative total of about 4.87 million US depository shares as of December 31, 2023.

It's so fragrant! The co-founder of MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) added more than 3,000 bitcoins, and recently held a position of nearly $10 billion. Enterprise software company WeeStrategy Investment = The purchase of bitcoins is part of the company's strategy. This month, the company also purchased more than 3,000 bitcoins at a price of US$155.4 million. Based on money market prices, this raised the value of the company's Bitcoin holdings to about $9.88 billion. The company's most recent purchase was made in cash between February 15 and February 25, according to a document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday. This brings the company's total bitcoin storage to around 193,000. Documents show that the average price of Saylor's most recent purchase was $51,813, while the average price of total holdings was $31,544. Bitcoin's price did not change much on Monday, around $51,379.

The US listing has been blocked, and Shein is reported to be considering listing in London. According to sources, while the US listing is blocked, it is reported that Xiyin will consider listing in London, as well as listing in Singapore or Hong Kong. Although the company believes that the US Securities and Exchange is unlikely to approve its IPO application, Xiyin is still struggling to obtain approval for the US listing, and the company still prefers to list in the US market.

Key economic data and event forecasts

21:30 Beijing time: The initial monthly rate of US durable goods orders in January (%).

22:00 Beijing time: The monthly rate of the US FHFA housing price index for December (%), and the annual rate of the unseasonally adjusted housing price index for the 20 largest US cities in December (%).

23:00 Beijing time: US Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index for February, US Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for February.

05:30 a.m. Beijing time the next day: US API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending February 23 (10,000 barrels).

22:05 Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivered a speech on counterparty credit risk.

To be confirmed, US Trade Representative Dai Qi will visit Abu Dhabi, UAE from Monday to Friday (February 26 to March 1).

Performance Forecast

Wednesday morning: eBay (EBAY.US), Beyond Meat (BYND.US)

Wednesday pre-market: Baidu (BIDU.US), iQiyi (IQ.US), Vipshop (VIPS.US), Hehuang Pharmaceutical (HCM, US), Daxin Energy (DQ.US)