Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that it is concerned about Haidilao (06862)'s possible reopening after the turnover rate has improved, and the resulting valuation boost, and maintained a “buy” rating.
The bank mentioned that the company's revenue from continuing operations for 23 years is expected to be no less than RMB 41.4 billion yuan/yoy +33%, and net profit from continuing operations will not be less than RMB 4.4 billion yuan/yoy +169%, achieving a net interest rate of 10.6%, exceeding the level of the full year of '19 (10.3%). The increase in revenue and performance was mainly due to the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and economic recovery, increased customer traffic at Haidilao restaurants, improved operating performance, increased turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants, and improved operating efficiency.
According to the report, looking at 23H2 alone, Haidilao 23H2 is expected to achieve revenue of no less than 22.51 billion yuan/YoY +58%, net profit of not less than 2.14 billion yuan/yoy +12%, and a net interest rate of 9.5%. If the company's 23H1 excludes exchange earnings, operating performance of 2.07 billion yuan and net interest rate of 10.9%; excluding the impact of exchange earnings and losses, 23H2 increased 10% + month-on-month, then the operating performance is about 2.27 billion +, with a net interest rate of 10.1%. The bank is still expected to achieve a relatively stable profit margin level in the second half of the year. During the 2024 Spring Festival holiday, Haidilao received a total of about 13 million customers, an increase of more than 35% over the same period last year. Haidilao introduced some regional specialties during the Spring Festival, which were well received by customers. In addition, many Haidilao stores in the sinking market also experienced a peak in passenger traffic, and stores in second- and third-tier cities all saw an increase of more than 60% in the number of customers received during the Spring Festival.