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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Tesson Holdings Limited's (HKG:1201) Shares After Tumbling 28%

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 23 17:53

Tesson Holdings Limited (HKG:1201) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 28% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 31% share price drop.

Although its price has dipped substantially, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Electrical industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.4x, you may still consider Tesson Holdings as a stock probably not worth researching with its 1.5x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:1201 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 23rd 2024

What Does Tesson Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Tesson Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Tesson Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Tesson Holdings?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Tesson Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 13%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 75% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 19% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Tesson Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Tesson Holdings' P/S

Despite the recent share price weakness, Tesson Holdings' P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Tesson Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Tesson Holdings that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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